MEDIATION? WHY AND HOW?

January 17, 2015

by T.Goshu

The very purpose of this comment of mine is to reflect my view-points about the role of external third parties (foreign governments) in dealing with a deadly political situation the people of Ethiopia have gone through for the last two decades. Let me be clear that I am not writing this piece of opinion either from the perspective of wishful thinking or because I believe that TPLF will easily change its evil-driven political behavior; or those Western governments will play genuine role without seeking for alternative forces or willing to help create one that is viable to significantly affects the existing balance of power in our country. The very reason to come up with this piece is to express my view that whatever the case may be, it is a very desirable political wisdom to appropriately pay attention to any eventuality of third parties involvement as mediators. Yes, I am aware that there are fellow Ethiopians who believe that negotiation with TPLF/EPRDF through mediation is wasting time and energy. Given the experiences the people had to go through for more than two decades, the concern is genuine and the frustration is understandable. However, it must seriously be noted that it is politically and diplomatically unwise and unproductive not properly and convincingly challenge the ruling elites if those foreign powers ask for playing the role of mediation. This said, let me proceed to the viewpoints I want to make.

1. The very idea of respect for natural rights is an intrinsic element of a democratic society. Needless to say, the continuation of total disregard of these fundamental values and principles in our country can become a very serious threat not only to national but also sub-regional, continental and international peace and stability. This may sound an exaggerated way of looking at things. I strongly argue it is not. I do not think I need to go into detail description of the situation in Ethiopia as what the people have experienced and continue to experience on a daily basis has been and is very self-explanatory.

When I say the sub-region, I am talking about the leaders of the sub- region who agreed and vowed to abduct, hunt down and exchange those citizens who cross their boarders to escape the political persecution of their respective governments. I am referring to Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Sudan; not to mention the not better than non-existent Federal Government of Somalia, and Yemen (across the Red Sea.) There should not be any doubt that this kind of friendship and alliance of tyrannical and abusive elites against any dissenting political movement is a serious threat to the emergence of democratic culture, peace and stability in the sub region.

When I say continental, I am referring mainly to the “African Union” which is in fact a continent-wide club mainly used to protect the interests of tyrannical, corrupt and despotic ruling elites of member states with the exception of very, very, very few. Fellow Ethiopians, our hearts broke and bleed when we witnessed the election observers of the “Union” approving and praising all elections and particularly the tragic elections of 2005 in our country. The “Union” has terribly proved itself as a club of those bunch of ruling elites who play the dirty politics of “scratch mine, I will scratch yours.” They have neither heard speaking about the bloodshed of innocent Ethiopians for the simple reason that they (the people) wanted their basic democratic rights respected. Sadly enough, this Union of not the people of Africa but a club of a bunch of tyrannical, corrupt, despotic and abusive ruling elites is prepared to witness and approve another “historic victory” by TPLF/EPRDF in the election expected to take place in May of this year.

When I say international, I do mean that in this highly globalized era, any political illness and socio-economic injustice in one corner of the world have painful effects in other parts of the world in one way or another. The very policy and practical engagements of countries such as China and the United Sates and West Europe in Africa in general and East Africa in particular are vivid examples how we have to face the reality of world politics. This political reality which unfortunately is losing its component of morality is so difficult to deal with for those peoples of developed and fairly advancing countries let alone the peoples of countries such as ourselves. But, there is no choice but deal with it wisely and with a real sense of unity of purpose. That is what is expected from the opposition forces of Ethiopia at this very critical moment. It is imperative for them to be well-prepared to engage TPLF/EPRDF with any appropriate but effective means available.

2. I wish we were fortunate enough to deal with our own political illnesses and socio-economic injustices with our own homegrown traditional or somewhat modern way of conflict resolution. The very deceptive, disingenuous and disastrous “mediation attempt” by the so-called elders group (Yeshimagelewoch Budin) led by Professor Ephrem Yishaq about the jailed opposition leaders after the 2005 tragic election is a very fresh memory in our political history. That group ended up with simply carrying the very arrogant and deadly stupid messages of the late Ato meles Zeanwi to the leadership of Kinijit in the notorious Kaliti prison. It was a very painful experience to hear Professor Ephrem praising the “greatness” of the late Ato Meles Zeanwi who declared victory by not only cheating and robing peoples’ votes but also by deploying his oppressive and killing machine in the streets of Addis Ababa. And by doing so, the “Budin” had painfully dirtied our valuable traditional mediation (Shimigilnna).

Because our very ugly political systems, especially for the last halve of a century have badly damaged this culture of great value of ours, we are forced to seek for total assistance from external forces. We do also remember how the Western diplomats played kind of deceiving and disingenuous “mediation” shuttling between the office of the late Ato Meles Zenawi and the opposition group (Kinijit). It was not difficult to understand that the Western governments were closely following the situation of the time in order to positon their own interests with a party which could significantly affect the balance of power. In other words, it was not difficult to expect that they (Western powers) were carefully watching whether the opposition was strong enough within itself to challenge TPLF/EPRDF, or was TPLF/EPRDF ready to use any means including the killing machine to stay in power and keep the balance of power as it used to be, if not much more worse than ever. As what happened was and is self-evidently clear, I do not need to expound the terrifying story the Ethiopian people had to go through.

Do not get me wrong that what I am trying to point out is seeking for outside parties for mediation is abnormal or unnecessary. No, that is not how world politics and diplomacy works. What I am trying to express is that it is deeply regrettable not to show our own serious initiatives, efforts, determination; and then seek for assistance of Western governments as an additional input. And what is also terribly disturbing is our complete failure to learn from what went deadly wrong in the past and to do significantly better after a decade.

I hate to say but I have to say that we are still witnessing a heart-breaking failure that opposition forces are not genuinely willing and patriotically courageous to do a meaningfully collaborated, if not unified political work. It is difficult to comprehend the political culture of making rhetoric after rhetoric about very similar missions, issues, agendas and objectives the opposition parties stand for, but practically sticking with their respective small circles. I am sorry once again to say but I have to say that being obsessed with personal aggrandizement which emanates from excessive personal ego is the deeply-rooted problem of being unable to make progress. I do not know how we can explain and justify the continuation of this kind of very troubling behaviors of the leaders and some members of opposition parties while so many genuinely patriotic Ethiopians are paying huge sacrifices in the hands of ruthless security forces of TPLF and notorious prison authorities. Needless to say that if opposition political parties or movements (engaged either in non-armed or armed struggle) do not try to break this ugly cycle of political culture, it will be very difficult to make a difference either through mediation or otherwise. And that is in fact one of the major reasons that the so-called Election Board is trying to keep them (opposition parties) parts of a very dirty/deadly political game of TPLF/EPRDF.

Let me pose a question: What necessitates mediation in our country? It is the need to resolve a deeply worrisome political situation we are facing through a real sense of reconciliation that could pave the way for creating a new and constructively sustainable relationship. And this is the most desirable way of breaking the vicious circle of our political culture that makes us one of the politically oppressed and socio- economically impoverished peoples of the world in this 21st century. Sadly enough, we are not seeing any viable progress after going through ten solid years of untold sufferings.

Needless to say, the very consequence of the ethno-centric dictatorship is extremely devastating as we have seen in the political history of countries which have fallen in the hands of evil-minded elites who have used their respective tribes/ethnic groups as their own main political power bases. The people of Ethiopia are not dealing with a political system that is characterized by dictatorship as we know as such. They rather are dealing with a dictatorship that keeps taking the country back to a very backward and dangerous political attitude of tribal identity first; but national (Ethiopian) identity second with a very undesirable mentality of “if necessary.”

We should genuinely be worried when we as a people allow the ruling elites to undermine (kill) our patriotic attitude of togetherness, believing in the value of identifying ourselves as members of a certain ethnic group or nationality and equally as Ethiopians. The very evil-driven political agenda and program of TPLF is constitutionalized as one of the main principles of the document (the constitution) which unfortunately is used as a weapon to attack those strongly oppose the continuation of the gross violation of citizens’ rights and putting the very survival of the country at risk . What makes the political situation of our country severely painful is when the ruling elites of TPLF/EPRDF tell us that all their deadly political behaviors and actions are to “protect the national security and interest of Ethiopia.” In other words, they are telling us that fulfilling their ethno-centric interests through corrupt, dysfunctional, brutally abusive way of doing politics is the same as promoting and fulfilling the national security and interest of the country. Is this not a very outrageous and disturbing insult to the very intelligence of the Ethiopian people?

Yes, it is absolutely outrageous and disturbing to witness when genuinely concerned Ethiopians who strongly criticize this kind of cynically deceptive and terribly wicked political game are being accused of not only as problems of “nation-building process” but also as “traitors” ,and as the result, forced to pay huge and incredibly painful sacrifices.

To be more specific and concrete, let me highlight the following:

• What happened during and after the 2005 elections was and is an extremely painful experience in this 21st century. I do not want to say more as not only because a lot has been said but most importantly the actions by the ruling party and all the horrible consequences speak much more loudly than words.

• What is happening to journalists who did nothing wrong but be sparking stars of the truth in a deeply darkened political and socio-economic lives of the people speaks more powerful than words how the TPLF/EPRDF is not willing and courageous to seriously reconsider its political madness and be part of a peaceful and democratic change in our country.

• What the ruling elites are doing to those leaders, members and supporters of opposition parties who did nothing wrong but tried to exercise their peaceful and legitimate rights is extremely worrisome and disturbing. The inner circle of TPLF has worked relentlessly to make sure that its wicked political agenda continue unchallenged by using any monstrous means. Needless to say, among the main targets of this very dangerous political agenda and practice are those opposition political parties/movements which are trying their best to make a difference through public awareness and participation. The day –to-day reality we continue to witness in our country is that TPLF keeeps going after those opposition forces which are organized in a multi-ethnic (national) line of politics? By doing so, it (TPLF) not only makes sure that those opposition forces should not become strong multi-ethnic political forces but also makes sure that those opposition forces could not make any meaningful alliance or collaboration with the ones organized on ethnic lines. That is exactly what we are witnessing these days as far as the very senselessly notorious intimidation aimed at opposition parties and groups such as Unity for Democracy and Justice, All Ethiopian Unity Party, the Blue Party, the Coordinating Body of the Nine, and Medrek are concerned. The ruling elites are extremely concerned and worried about how they should continue with their dirty and deadly political game without being challenged. And that is why they are getting more and more ruthless. They are once again unleashing the only “solutions” they know – intimidation, persecution, arbitrary arrests, torture, abduction and politically motivated killings. All this is to make sure that the people will remain with no any credible choice in the upcoming election except “the revolutionary democracy” and all other “great legacies” of its main architect, the late Ato Meles Zenawi.

• The politically motivated intervention in the religious lives of the people to the extent of accusing them (the people) of act of terrorism is disturbingly dangerous. Yes, it is extremely worrisome to witness the ruling elites declaring war on those citizens who peacefully and legitimately have demanded one of their fundamental rights, freedom of worship/religion. It goes without saying that the very reason to target those innocent citizens who demand their basic rights is that the very inner circle of TPLF/EPRDF knows very well that this and other similar demands could become integral parts of the peaceful struggle ; and subsequently could be a threat to the continuation of their evil-driven political power. Do they really (the ruling elites) worry about protecting the country and its people from the attacks of terrorist organizations? Needless to say that things unfortunately are quite the contrary; that is to mean that the ruling party is interested in playing a very dirty political game; keeping a terrorism card alive on one hand and attacking opposition political parties with dissenting ideas and agendas in the name of counter –terrorism on the other hand. And this must honestly and courageously be dealt with if we are serious enough about making a difference either through mediation or otherwise at this critical moment.

• The concentration of the powers of all the three branches of government (parliament, judiciary and the executive) not only in the executive branch as such but also in the very hands of few ethno-centric ruling elites (TPLF) is getting more dangerous than ever. As a matter of fact, all the chronic illnesses of our political system emanate from this dangerously tyrannical way of doing politics. In other words, all aspects of peoples’ lives; be it political, socio-economic, ideological, religious are under the total control of the headquarters of TPLF (forget about the other so-called members of “the Front”); and this has to be reversed timely and appropriately either through mediation (if it works) or by any other appropriate and desirable means that should not of course miss its mission of establishing democratic and peaceful society.

• Are we carefully and seriously following what the so-called Election Board is making itself boldly clear that it was and is a very nasty political arm of the ruling party than ever? I said than ever, because we are witnessing a stupidly ridiculous attempt by the Board to carry out its dirty political mission given from its creator and care taker, TPLF/EPRDF by : a) attempting to invalidate the participation of opposition parties in the upcoming elections and b) reorganizing and nurturing those individuals who used to be members of opposition parties either as undercover members of the ruling party or as individuals who are obsessed with being beneficiaries of the deadly political game of the notorious ruling circle. Here after, it must be very crystal clear that the so-called Board is an arm of ethno-centric dictatorship and must be dealt with accordingly. And this must be one of the main targets of the struggle whether we engage in mediation or otherwise.

• It must be underscored here that if the TPLF elites still believe that the people who have gone through untold sufferings for a quarter of a century will continue tolerating the no more intolerable political game, they must be ready to take a very huge and serious responsibility and accountability for any unintended and undesirable consequence. Yes, if they (the ruling elites) still believe that the people will never be forced to take any available choice including armed struggle to deal with the regime they suffer under, we should be deeply worried and do something appropriate and effective about it before it is too late.

If those Western governments are credibly and timely trying to help not only the opposition but the ruling elites themselves, it is critically high time to do something that should go beyond lip service or doing things business as usual.

The opposition forces need strongly and consistently to remind not only the ‘would-be mediators” but also themselves that there is no any historical evidence of resolving political crises sustainably by engaging in kind of quick fix and double standard rule of game. It must be made unequivocally but wisely clear that the people of Ethiopia do not deserve to be preached about the most abused concept of “democracy is a process.” Yes, it is!

However, preaching the people to tolerate the regime which totally has deprived them of their very natural rights and fundamental liberties for a quarter of a century in the name of “process” does not make any sense at all. If there should be any serious and honest mediation role, the ruling elites need to be strongly advised that they must help the people get out of a cynical and hypocritical political game they have suffered a lot and be parts of the new and genuine democratic process.

3. We, these days hear and read about the “effort” being made by some governments of Western countries looking for a bridge by which TPLF and opposition forces could meet and talk. Given all the serious political circumstances I tried to highlight earlier and multiple of other political issues which are moving at a very alarming manner, it is not unexpected to see those Western powers trying to play some sort of role, as meditators or through any other mode of communication.

According to the news we hear and read, the countries which are steering (coordinating) the effort are said to be the United States and Norway. We repeatedly have heard from the interviews given by leaders of some opposition parties that Western diplomats do have close contacts with them and they do closely follow the situation. And that is a desirable thing. Thanks to ESAT for informing the public about the ‘effort” in this regard on its daily news broadcast on 01/02/15. Although the information could not become publicly broadcast as we recently are witnessing, it is neither difficult to expect nor surprising to see those Western powers (“donors”) shuttling here and there as they must be worried about the upcoming elections and its consequences. They must be concerned about the very fate of the inner circle of TPLF in the upcoming elections especially without the leading figure of “their bad guy”, the late Ato Mels Zenawi.

It will be unfair, if not wrong for me either to undermine or to go against the recognition of the deterioration of the political situation in our country by those powers, and their effort in creating some sort of helpful environment for political mediation. I am not with the intention of naively and blindly remain pessimistic and rejectionist about this effort because those foreign powers have done nothing significant in multiple of terribly deceiving and tragic elections in the past two decades either. Neither am I naïve enough that those powers could take the initiative for mediation because they simply are worried about the very absence of fundamental democratic rights in Ethiopia because of “their bad guys” in power. But one thing that looks becoming seriously clear is that those powers have realized that unless they do something about the deteriorating political situation, the evil they do know (TPLF/EPRDF) will get much more deadly monstrous and take the country of which they consider very important for their national interests to a situation which would be extremely difficult to manage. This is just my genuine assumption as things are not clear enough yet.

It is a very unfortunate fresh memory how the people of Ethiopia gravely suffered being victims of the cold war, being the playing cards of the two super powers of the time ( U.S and the USSR) for about seventeen years (the early 1970s to the very end of 1990s). Needless to say, a generation which strongly and legitimately felt that it was terribly betrayed for so long by the very despotic royal ruling elites was forced to take a revolutionary change as an alternative path. We can argue whether that was right or wrong and we can draw a very great deal of lesson if we are honest enough about the issue of how to move forward, not to be captives of what went wrong .Imagine fellow Ethiopians, when that generation engaged in a revolution hoping it would be good for a country of a long period of history of not-colonized but politically oppressed and economically impoverished , other African countries such as Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, the former North Rhodesia/Zambia, the former Nyasaland/Malawi , and so many others were just 10 to 15 years of old ( independent). Not to mention the former South Rhodesia (Zembabwe) and South Africa. Imagine where we are now. Although it is deeply disturbing for any Ethiopian with his or right mind, we have to admit that thousands of young Ethiopians have fled to most of those countries regardless of any horrible situation they may face on their way . It is heart- breaking for us to witness how thousands of our sister and brothers being treated less than any ordinary human being in the hands of the security and law enforcement agencies of those countries. The unprecedented situation we have experienced and continue to experience across the Red Sea cannot be explained simply as a miserable fate of individual citizens, but it is also a very disturbing national disgrace that is very difficult to justify. I am not saying that immigrating to other countries is a new phenomenon or a bad thing as such, especially in this highly globalized lives of the people. What I am trying to say is our case is extremely difficult to comprehend.

Adding salt to injuries, those leaders of Western governments have tried to insult the very intelligence of the Ethiopian people by providing TPLF/EPRDF with any assistances or support which unfortunately is used to prolong the sufferings of the people and endangering the very survival of the country. They have tried hard to convince the people that TPLF/EPRDF is the devil they have known for getting their interests promoted and protected in that part of Africa, democracy is something that should develop through process. What the people of Ethiopia are saying is that they do not need to go to “school of democracy” to be preached about a process that is driven by a notoriously dictatorial political machinations. Simply put, those foreign powers will keep dancing with “their bad guys” unless we as a people, as political parties/movements, as civic groupings and as concerned citizens stand in a unified and determined way of doing politics and say enough is enough. That is how we can force those foreign powers to play a fair and balanced role if they are serious about changing things through the mediation they are talking about.
I want here to bring in a quotation from a book titled: “CHINA SAFARI: ON THE TRAIL OF BEIJING’S EXPANSION IN AFRICA” BY SERGE MICHAEL & MICHEL BEURET, 2009. It vividly describes how and why China had a great opportunity to expand its interest of exploitation of natural resources and dumping its poor quality products in the name of investment partnership; and why and how the United States of America chose to keep its friendship of TPLF/EPRDF.

Take a moment and read the following very carefully how and why China got a chance to stretch its interests that is absolutely devoid of respect for fundamental human rights in Ethiopia. It states, “The regime (TPLF/EPRDF) instituted a reign of terror, similar to that of General Pinochet’s in Chile, right after it consolidated power in May 2005 elections. As a consequence, financial aid, which makes up to forty percent of Ethiopia’s budget, has fallen off considerably, a situation that suites China.”

And take one more moment and read carefully the following about how and why the U.S. chose not only to side with but also to continue providing necessary support to the ruling elites who have committed a very serious political crime in broad daylight in the streets of Addis Ababa. It says, “To be fair, the United States hasn’t disowned Zenawi either. Its problem – and Ethiopia’s – is that, with any credible opposition either in prison or otherwise unavailable, there’s no one else to support. Even if there was, it’s unlikely that both China and the United States would want to risk the progress they’ve made with the devil they know to replace him with one they don’t.” Fellow Ethiopians, and particularly opposition forces both engaged in peaceful struggle and otherwise, this is the political reality the country continues to face even after a decade.

To conclude, the dehumanization we are facing as individual citizens and the very disturbing national disgrace we are experiencing as a people can only be resolved with the willingness, the courage, the ability and determination we pull together. This remains the most determinant and desirable factor in the process of not only challenging and getting rid of the ethno –centric dictatorship but also in the process of developing a democratic culture after and beyond. We constantly and honestly have to remind ourselves that the very fact that until we credibly show how we are willing and well prepared to play the decisive role that shakes the status quo of the balance of power, there is no any convincing reason and expectation that the Western powers will abandon the devil they know very well, and side with the people who desperately aspire for democratic change. To this end, all opposition forces both engaged in non- armed and armed struggle, and both in Ethiopia and in the diaspora should try hard to control if not minimize their senseless tugs of war and being obsessed with their personal ego-driven way of doing politics. It is only and only with this kind of patriotism that it would be possible to break the vicious cycle that the Ethiopian people have gone through a long, long and long period of political history. Needless to say, any widow of opportunity for opening the political space through mediation before TPLF /EPRDF makes another terrible mistake that may not possible to manage should be wisely and cautiously exploited. And it goes without saying that it is also imperative for opposition political parties to take any feasible collaboration that requires a real sense of selflessness for the sake of ending the unprecedented level of suffering of the people.