Views on the anticipated Ethio-Eritrea war

August 25, 2014

by Tatek Menji

• The main assumed reasons given for the will be Ethio-Eritrean war in the very near future are : (1) that TPLF wants to hunt down its armed oppositions in Eritrea (2) that TPLF wants to topple down Isayas Afeworki from power and substitute by TPLF groomed anti Isayas actors. Are these acceptable suppositions ? Aren`t the polit bureau of Shabia and the polit bureau of TPLF brothers? Is Shabia really a threat to TPLF? Is Shabia really disempowering the TPLF regime? Which formidable armed opposition/s being helped by Shabia against TPLF?

• Regarding assumption (1) : let’s say that there are lightweight or heavy weight armed forces in Eritrea to become a threat to the TPLF regime. Can the TPLF uproot those armed forces simply by unleashing Ethio-Eritrea boarder war or by invading into the Eritrean territory up to Asmera,like that of the 1998-2000 war?

• With regard to conjecture (2) : let`s consider that TPLF ousted Isayas and his top dogs from power and replaced by TPLF backed rival group/s as Georg Bush did to Iraq in 2003.Wouldn`t these- the above postulates contradict the International Law of sovereignty? “The principle of absolute or unrestricted power expressed either as the unchallengeable legal authority or unquestionable political power.” If this sovereignty principle is applicable-both number one and two above are rebukeable beliefs. Or as long as any given war is for the interest of the Western powers, the imperative of sovereignty is irrelevant?

America badly wants access to the Eritrean area of the Red Sea for its: geo-political, economic and military strategic importances.

The geo-political importance of the Red Sea

The Red Sea has a special strategic importance. The Red Sea is the heart of the area for linking and for serving as a bridge for the four worlds: Africa, the Middle East, the Far East and Europe

-The Red Sea is one of the main routes for oil and other trades to Europe and to the East

- It serves as a major trade outlet for its coastal States-Eritrea, Ethiopia (in the past),Sudan, Jordan and Israel

-It serves as a track of communication for the military forces between their home countries and their stations or bases in different locations of the world

-The Red Sea is a first class Sea passageway among world navigational routes, due to the larger percentage of unarmed oil tankers have had been transported through

The Economic importance of the Red Sea

-The Red Sea is rich in mineral deposit: zinc, copper, silver, gold, cadmium, cobalt, hydrocarbons, various marine lives, about 300 kinds of fish and beautiful coral reef that makes the Red Sea one of the best places for tourists and for diving

-Thanks to Melese Zenawi, he disowned us such strategic ports, with such indispensable underwater natural treasure/wealth. The bulk of Ethiopians including myself didn`t get the opportunity to see such precious, historical and heritage ports . What a great loss! What a sad loss to us!

The United States Strategy in the Red Sea

- The Red sea is the main sea highway to ship the Arabian Gulf oil to its Western Industrialized allies/nations

- The United States has stationed naval forces, aircraft carriers, destroyers, nuclear submarines etc in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea in (Djibouti).The purposes of these bases are to protect U.S.interests in the Middle East, in the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea

- To counter Russia`s threat against its economic interest and security of the waterway of the U.S navigation and to
safeguard the Middle East and the Red Sea regions from any hostile foreign influence

- Ever since president Truman, the ‘security and the independence of Israel’ is one of all American presidents foreign policy priorities. Which means, the U.S concerns for the unrestricted pathway of the Israel`s navigation via the Red Sea

-The main reasons why the U.S currently looking for the Eritrean port/s : The revival of Russia against America`s interests and Iran`s naval significance in the Persian Gulf and its attempt into the Red Sea seems become a headache for America towards the Red sea region. Hints:

- In 2001,one year after the 9/11 the Al-Qaida attack,U.S demanded Eritrea to have a military base in the Red Sea port of Assab. As this news source stated, Mr.Afeworki rejected U.S`s request, saying that he doesn’t want to become a “tool in the hands of the Western military commands”

- 8 June 2011, Iran sent its Submarines into Red Sea the for the first time, being escorted by the Iranian navy 14th fleet warships. According to some anonymous analysts, Tehran wanted to send a tacit message that U.S can not contain or prevent Iran`s regional ambition. Iran says, if the U.S wants to avert a three decades of hostility,U.S must treat Iran as an equal.

-To intermediate him, the Western powers:(a) portrayed Isayas Afework as he had been empowering the Alshebabs and other terrorist elements in the Horn of Africa (b) in 2009, exercised the United Nations security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1907. Which means (imposed)- arms embargo, travel bans on Eritrea’s leaders and frozen the assets of some political military officials

-‘’Time to bring Eritrea in from the cold” by Hank Cohen. This apologetic article invited for the normalisation of relations among- Eritrea,Ethiopia,the UN and the U.S.It proposes: (1) Ethiopia to allow or give the disputed the border land/s to Eritrea (2) Ethiopia to have access to Assab port and use it for its trade need (3) UN to cancel sanction against Eritrea (4) make a deal for military cooperation between U.S and Eritrea. And Eritrea to join the U.S a war on terrorism in the Horn of Africa and across the Red Sea.

- In spite all those U.S`S efforts, Eritrea refused to bend to the United States way. To the contrary, as recently as 4 August 2014, Eritrea announced that it agreed strategic relationship with Russia, declared as “Eritrea is a part of Russia on strategic partnership”. To affirm this, one of Europe based Russia`s diplomat officiated that Russia ‘will be conducting military exercises in Eritrea soon this year’. Is it not the ‘grapes are sour’ for America? If this foreseeable Ethio-Eritrea war will break out as speculated, that will be for the interest of the Western powers – in particular for America`s interest. America and its allies may push the TPLF at least to capture port Assab with the pretext of a ‘chase for armed anti- TPLF oppositions. If the U.S and its interest sharing partners analysed and perceived it as a winnable move, the war will take place soon, prior to Russia commence military manoeuvre in Assab port.

Why would the TPLF betray their brothers` kingdom? As we all know, without America and its Western allies backing, the TPLF could have been perished from power long time ago. To rule Ethiopia further, the TPLF can and will sacrifices any commitment for its Godfathers` interest. “To ‘preserve power, tyrants do not hesitate to scarifies – their children, their wives, their parents, their brothers, their sisters, their wealth etc.”, in one of Lenin`s books that I read in the past. For despots, nothing surpasses their power. To mean, the TPLF can do anything to appease the U.S and it`s big allies.

The prospect of the war if it become materialised

-Suppose, the TPLF will triumph of capturing the Assab port- does it mean Ethiopia will have a guarantee to re-own Assab for an enduring future? I strongly doubt. Of course, It will serve : (1) for the United States and its confederates interests (2) for the forthcoming state of Tigray Republic.But it doesn’t mean the war will everlasting

- We would be naive, if we expect the war I am writing about shall bring favourable condition/s for the anti-TPLF political movement in Ethiopia. Why don`t we learn from 1998- 2000 Ethio-Eritrean war, instead, TPLF will use it to dwarf or overshadow its political opponents and human rights activists

The outlook of Russia`s presence in the Horn of Africa

-Firstly it will drive the U.S crazy or mad

-It may strengthen the neo- post cold war tension between the U.S and Russia

-It will prompt America to double- reinforcing its pupate states in the East and the Horn of Africa: Kenya,Djibout,Somalia, South Sudan, perhaps Somaliland (Hargeisa), in particular Ethiopia.

-North Sudan might tend to join Russia

-Could Russia`s positioning in the Horn of Africa- urge U.S to words democratising the TPLF regime? I don`t think so, unless and otherwise, the U.S see`s tangible and effective pro-U.S democratic political force/s that counterweigh or be alternative to TPLF

Sources

Al-Anazi, Torki, 2001,Strategic Importance of the Red Sea,U.S Army War College,Carlile Barracks, Pennsylvania
Geeska Afrika,4 August 2014,Asmera Defence and Security News Update
Cohn,Hank,16 December 2013,Time to Bring Eritrea in from the Cold (African Arguments Editor)
Maher,Chamayteli (Gulf News), 23 April 2010, Eritrea Rejected U.S Military Demand for Red Sea Base
Maryam,Sinaiee, (Fars News Agency),8 June 2011,Iran Sends Submarines into Red Sea for the First Time